News.Az interviews director of the international institute of political expertise Eugeni Minchenko.
How do you assess the current situation in the South Caucasus in particular in the conflict area through the prism of interests of the United States and Russia? Don’t you think that these two countries are interested in the current status of the unresolved conflict over Karabakh and it will not be settled for a long time? If yes, why do the aforementioned states benefit from such a state of affairs?
Neither the United States, nor Russia benefit from the continuation of the conflict but there are no real opportunities for its quick settlement. In addition, unilateral actions and excessive pressure on one of the conflict parties may cause imbalance the South Caucasus.
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have recent held talks in Yerevan and Khankendi without paying a visit to Baku. By some information, Baku expects Armenian side to respond to Madrid principles. Featuring the content of the last version of the Madrid principles, Azerbaijani FM Elmar Mammadyarov said on the first stage Armenian arfrmed forces must withdraw their troops from five occupied regions and 13 villages of Lachin. After the withdrawal of troops the Armenian side must restore all communications. The roads will open upon completion of the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Lachin and Kelbajar. The status of Karabakh will be discussed after the return of Azerbaijani refugees to the places of their residence. Now the Azerbaijani side is waiting for the response of official Yerevan. Do you think Armenia’s leadership will agree to sign such a document?
Armenia will probably want to attain the mentioning of the status of Karabakh in any form before the start of withdrawing troops.
Do you think the signing of a framework agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is real?
Unfortunately, there are few prerequisites for this.
The United States and West are trying to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia ignoring the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. However, official Ankara hampers the normalization process in an attempt to bind the Karabakh conflict settlement to the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. Do you think the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is possible without respect to the Karabakh conflict?
It is possible only through the loss of a part of the Turkish influence in Azerbaijan. Turkey may open borders with Armenia under US and EU, especially if there are complications in the implementation of the Nabucco project.
Which role will Moscow play in the negotiation process on the Karabakh conflict? Which opportunities does Russia have to settle this conflict?
The observed economic and political rapprochement of Turkey and Russia create the strongest and most interesting opportunities to settle the conflict.
B.A
News.Az
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