Arif Yunus
News.Az interviews Arif Yunus, director of the Department of Conflict Studies at Azerbaijani NGO, the Institute of Peace and Democracy.
This month marks the 16th anniversary of the ceasefire between Azerbaijani and Armenian armed forces. Do you think the sides will manage to preserve the reconciliation?
This issue can be seen both positively and negatively. The positive side is that the ceasefire has been kept for 16 years without the peacekeeping forces of any third state or international organization being involved. This is, undoubtedly, a plus. However, this does not include small arms. We constantly get information about the violation of the ceasefire, exchanges of fire and a sniper war in which people are killed. This is the negative aspect. Another negative is that the negotiating process, which has lasted all this time, has not been effective yet. A ceasefire does not does not mean peace, a ceasefire is an indefinite state.
However, the sides to the conflict say that some progress in the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict has been achieved. Do you agree?
I cannot see anything positive here. I follow the negotiating process constantly, I have been studying it especially since the creation of the Minsk Group. There have been many proposals on the conflict settlement at different times, but all of them ended without result. It is difficult to say that the negotiating process has given anything new, because the negotiating process here is mostly for show. This means that in reality there have been no real negotiations. The negotiating process means that the sides are striving to attain something via compromise. It is clear that the negotiating process between the two countries is leading to compromise, but perception of the term 'compromise' is distorted in Armenian and Azerbaijani society. They think that compromise must be only in their favour. That is, when Armenians and Azerbaijanis speak about a just settlement, each party is thinking that the issue must be settled only in their favour. Meanwhile, this is a hurdle that is difficult to get over. For the Armenians, settlement means that Azerbaijan recognizes the independence of Karabakh or its annexation to Armenia, while for Azerbaijanis it is the mandatory preservation of Karabakh within Azerbaijan and, afterwards, Baku will think of any autonomy without defining the notion of high autonomy itself.
At the same time, people in Baku forget that Karabakh once had this autonomy for 70 years. I think if we want to settle the issue of compromise, we should have put something definite on the table during these years. But we can see that both parties think that time is on their side. The Armenians think that sooner or later the current de facto state will become de jure and the time will come to recognize the independence of Karabakh. That is, they believe that the world will get tired, Azerbaijanis will be fed up too and, as a result, their military gains will become legal and the whole world will recognize the independence of Karabakh, as they did in the case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, not to mention Kosovo. This is the position of the Armenians. Therefore, they are in no great hurry. The Azerbaijanis also think that time is on their side: they get dividends from oil, the economy is growing, the situation in Armenia is worsening, and so on. Therefore, I sometimes say that the negotiations are held for the Americans' sake, as they really want this problem to be settled and it doesn't matter in whose favour. What's important for them is that the problem is settled and stability is established in the region in order to squeeze out the Russians and start their business with Iran. But it is extremely difficult for the United States to do this now, as there are conflicts and two countries, Azerbaijan and especially Armenia, are in suspense and strongly depend on Russia. Therefore, they need to settle this conflict which is why they often force us to hold talks while we continue talks as if doing them a favour. Therefore, I say that these negotiations are for show.
If they want to hold real negotiations, the talks cannot take place in isolation: negotiations should be held not only on the level of the presidents and foreign ministers but also on the level of the people and public. One day the sides will sign a document and what's most important is that when this day comes the societies are ready for peaceful coexistence. In conditions of real hysteria in Armenian and Azerbaijani society, when both parties view each other as enemies, no one can guarantee that a peace agreement would be accepted by the public. Therefore, they say that if someone really wants peace and holds negotiations, they do not only hold talks, they also prepare the public for peace. We are not preparing our people for this. On the contrary, the Armenian and Azerbaijani press and even textbooks are filled with fierce campaigns. Negotiations cannot be held like this. Therefore, I am not optimistic about the negotiations.
Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry reports every day about the violation of the ceasefire by the Armenian side in different sectors. What should be done to reduce these instances to a minimum?
We can differentiate two aspects to this. The first is the real state of affairs on the front line. The second is the way this is all presented. These are not the same. As I have already said, a ceasefire means the non-use of military hardware, aircraft and artillery. Meanwhile, small arms have never been banned. Naturally, if we go to the front line, we will see exchanges of fire almost every day, which are mostly by accident. I can talk about the instances that I have seen myself. For example, there is a watch at the military post. A rabbit runs past, the watch is afraid and opens fire. The Armenians do not realize this and open fire too. Or they are celebrating someone’s birthday: they drink and start firing into the air and the people on the opposite side don't know that it's a birthday party and return fire. This causes an exchange of fire for half an hour. This happens everywhere. Wherever there troops, there is shooting.
Both the Armenians and Azerbaijanis are doing it. Therefore, it is very difficult to say who is to blame. It's another matter how all this is presented. Our Defence Ministry will never say that the ceasefire was violated by the Azerbaijani side. You will never read in a report of the Armenian Defence Ministry either that the Armenian troops have broken the ceasefire. In addition, depending on the internal political situation, they may not even report a violation of the ceasefire or report a great deal about ceasefire violations. In the latter case, an ordinary citizen may get the impression that war has started. But in fact there is no war, it's just an exchange of fire that occurs every day. This presentation is propaganda. For example, last year on 1 March, when Armenia had elections, there were reports of fighting on the front line. But these fights occurred every day. In addition, I can say when these fights will be especially fierce. As soon as the snow melts, a positional war starts and both Armenians and Azerbaijanis try to move the trench line a little further forward. In some cases we are more active and in others the Armenians are active.
The Minsk Group co-chairs have repeatedly asked the sides to remove snipers from the contact line. The Armenian side agrees to it, while the Azerbaijani side does not. What causes the reluctance of the Azerbaijani side?
It's the same reason why neither of the sides intends to give up anti-personnel and anti-tank mines, despite the Ottawa international convention banning the use of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines. Both the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides say that as long as the Karabakh conflict continues, they cannot give them up. That is, everyone refers to the fact that as long as there is war and a threat, they will not give up mines and snipers, because the sides do not trust each other and I think this is the reality. They do not trust each other and they understand that the negotiations are for show and not serious. Therefore, it is necessary to be ready every day.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az
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